The physicist Heinz Pagels is quoted in the frontispiece of this book:
- I am convinced that the nations and people who master the new sciences of complexity will become the economic, cultural and political superpowers of the next century.
If anything we have said here means anything at all, America's defense establishment needs to heed these words.
How well would efforts to prepare for America's national security in the 21st century stack up against Pagel's admonition? Has the Revolution in Military Affairs debate been relevant to this advice? Does any list of big-ticket defense initiatives, such as Joint Vision 2010, Dominant Battlespace Knowledge (DBK) and its "system of systems," and Force XXI's digitized battlefield, not show an overriding penchant for the linear, especially its enchantment with, and over-dependence on, technological solutions?
The Department of Defense ought to institutionally evolve a "Pagel's test," similar to the largely informal, yet ubiquitous, "purple test" for which is applied almost self-consciously as a sort of internalized feature of almost any defense process and review. It is the product of concerted and consistent acculturation.
The "purple test" essentially just prompts the question, "How does this fit into the joint application of force, since no one goes it alone anymore?" The "Pagel's test" would prompt a similar question: "Have we provided for nonlinear, as well as linear, approaches because both are needed to "cope with the bounds?"
Certainly, the vestiges of McNamara's PPBS, the absurdly rigid POM cycle, would get a thumbs down. It would not be surprising to realize that many peacekeeping missions result in "artificial histories" and all the more unintended consequences further down the road. In fact, remembering the importance of the property of diversity in complex adaptive systems, the "purple test" might not always get by the "Pagel's test," as well.
| Coping with the Bounds Index | Foreword | Acknowledgments | Introduction | Part One Introduction | Chapter 1 | Chapter 2 | Chapter 3 | Chapter 4 | Part Two Introduction | Chapter 5 | Chapter 6 | Chapter 7 | Chapter 8 | Chapter 9 | Chapter 10 | Conclusion | Appendix 1 | Appendix 2 | Appendix 3 | Appendix 4 | Appendix 5 | Appendix 6 | Notes |