1) The following books have achieved the status of "standards" for introductions to the field. M. Mitchell Waldrop. Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992. It is an entertaining, as well as intelligible, work that is very popular with students. It tells the story of complexity theory through the personalities of the scholars associated with the Santa Fe Institute, and the struggle to establish that "think tank." James Gleick. Chaos: Making a New Science. New York: Viking, 1987. Gleick's book is notable for being the first popular account of nonlinear science to become a best-seller with the general reading public. In addition, three articles are recommended: James P. Crutchfield, J. Doyne Farmer, Norman H. Packard, and Robert S. Shaw. "Chaos." Scientific American, December 1986: 46-57, Russell Ruthen. "Adapting to Complexity." Scientific American, January 1993: 130-40, and Per Bak and Kan Chen. "Self-Organized Criticality." Scientific American, January 1991: 46-53.
2) Beyerchen, Alan D. "Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery." in Alberts, David and Thomas J. Czerwinski, eds., Complexity, Global Politics and National Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University, May 1997: 161-62 and 167-68.
3) Holland, John H. Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., 1995: 23.
4) Holland: 38-41.
5) Holland: 13-15.
6) Holland: 15-16.
7-10) Holland: 23, 23, 26 and 23, respectively.
11) Holland: 31-33.
12-13) Holland: 37, and 41-42, respectively.
14) Johnson, George. "Researchers on Complexity Ponder What It's All About," New York Times, May 6, 1997: C1.
1) Kellert, Stephen F. In the Wake of Chaos. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993: 137.
2) Cohen, Jack and Ian Stewart. The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World. New York: Penguin Books, 1994: 23.
3) Allison, Graham T. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. New York: Harper-Collins Publishers, 1971: 144.
4) Rinaldi, Steven M. Beyond the Industrial Web: Economic Synergies and Targeting Methodologies. (Student thesis.) Maxwell AFB, AL: Air University, April 1995: 12.
5) Arthur, W. Brian. "Why Do Things Become More Complex?" Scientific American, May 1993: 144.
6) Gell-Mann, Murray. "What Is Complexity?" Complexity, Vol 1, No. 1: 19.
7) Petzinger, Thomas. "The Front Lines," Wall Street Journal, May 5, 1997: B1.
8) Cohen Stewart: 182.
9) Jervis, Robert. "Complex Systems: The Role of Interactions," in Alberts, David and Thomas J. Czerwinski, eds., Complexity, Global Politics and National Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University, 1997: 45-71.
10) Van Creveld, Martin. Command in War. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press,1985: 251-260.
1) Kellert, Stephen H. In the Wake of Chaos. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993: 115.
2) Fig. 4.1 represents a computer plot of the iterated growth, or Logistics, equation, or Xn + 1 = KXn (1-xn). A number of important and interesting aspects of Chaos theory, such as attractors and fractals, are not covered. If you'd like to know more about these take a look at Complexity Exploratorium [hhtp://www.exploratorium.edu/complexity] on the Internet.
3) Johnson, George. "Researchers on Complexity Ponder What It's All About," New York Times, May 6, 1997: C7.
4) Arthur, W. Brian. "Why Do Things Become More Complex?" Scientific American, May 1993: 144.
5) Saperstein, Alvin M. "Complexity, Chaos, and National Security: Metaphors or Tools?" in Alberts, David and Thomas J. Czerwinski, eds., Complexity, Global Politics and National Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University, 1997: 124.
6) Shermer, Michael. "The Crooked Timber of History," Complexity, July/August 1997: 24.
7) Bak, Per and Kan Chen. "Self-Organized Criticality," Scientific American, January 1991: 46.
8) Merry, Uri. Coping With Uncertainty. Westport, CN: Praeger Publishers, 1995: 41.
9) Holland, John H. Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc., 1995: 33.
10) Holland: 168.
1) Arthur, W. Brian. "Increasing Returns and the New World of Business." Harvard Business Review, July-August 1996: 107.
1) Beyerchen, Alan D. "Clausewitz, Nonlinearity and the Importance of Imagery," in Alberts, David and Thomas J. Czerwinski, eds., Complexity, Global Politics and National Security. Washington, DC: National Defense University, May 1997: 153-170.
i) For a very readable exposition, see Lakoff, George and Mark Johnson. Metaphors We Live By. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1980. For a variety of current approaches, see Ortony, Andrew (ed.), Metaphor and Thought, second ed. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993.
iii) On War: 168.
iv) On War: 225, 296, 605, 149 respectively.
2) Cohen, Jack and Ian Stewart. The Collapse of Chaos: Discovering Simplicity in a Complex World. New York: Penguin Books, 1994: 184-186.
3) Ilichinski, Andrew. Land Warfare and Complexity, Part II: An Assessment of the Applicability of Nonlinear Dynamic and Complex Systems Theory to the Study of Land Warfare (U). Alexandria, VA: Center for Naval Analyses, 1996: 48, 52-3.
1-4) Van Creveld, Martin. Command in War. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1985: 269.
5) Van Creveld: 270.
6) Harwood, John. "In Some Big States, Lawmakers Remain Divided Over How Best to Implement Welfare Overhaul," Wall Street Journal, May 16, 1997: A20.
7) Covey, Stephen R. "The Strange Attractor." Executive Excellence, August 1994: 5-6.
8) Petzinger, Thomas, Jr. "A Creative Staff Finds New Strength In Its Differences." The Wall Street Journal, April, 11, 1997: B1.
1) Smith, Bradley E. "Review of Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies." (Unpublished paper.) Industrial College of the Armed Forces, November 26, 1996.
2) Perrow, Charles. Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1984.
3) Czerwinski, Thomas J. "Command and Control at the Crossroads," Parameters, Autumn 1996: 121-132.
4) Perrow: 334.
1) Briggs, John and F. David Peat. Turbulent Mirror. New York: Harper & Row, Publishers, 1989: 174-80.
1) Markowsky, George. "An Introduction to Algorithmic Information Theory," Complexity, March/April 1997: 14.
2) Naik, Gautum. "Back to Darwin: Genetic Algorithm Software." Wall Street Journal, January 16, 1997: 1.
3) Rinaldi, Steven M. Beyond the Industrial Web: Economic Synergies and Targeting Methodologies. Maxwell AFB, AL: School of Advanced Airpower Studies, April 1995: 46, 48-49 and 53-55.
4) Rinaldi, Steven M. Targeting Modern Economies: Economic Synergies and Nodal Analyses. Draft, unpublished paper. March 26, 1996: 15-17.
1) Klein, Gary. "Strategies of Decision Making," Military Review, May 1989: 56-64.
i) For a fuller view, see G.A. Klein (in press), "Recognition-Primed Decisions, Advances in Man-Machine Systems Research, ed. W. Rouse. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press: 5.
ii) For the purposes of this article, the term "analytical decision making" will be to refer to these two methods, and particularly to concurrent option comparison.
iii) US Department of the Army Field Manual 101-5, Staff Organization and Operations. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, May 1984: 5-9 to 5-10.
iv) M. Thordsen, J. Galushka, S. Young, G.A. Klein and C.P. Brezovic, Distributed Decision Making in a Command and Control Planning Environment (KATR-8 (C)-87-08F). Yellow Springs, OH: Klein Associates, Inc., 1987. Prepared under contract MDA903-86-c-0170 for the US Army Research Institute, Alexandria, VA.
v) D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, "Intuitive Predictions: Biases and Corrective Procedures," TIMS Studies in Management Science, 12, 1979: 313-27.
vi) L.L. Lopes, The Rhetoric of Irrationality, paper presented at Colloquium in Mass Communication, Madison, WI, November 1986 (currently under revision). J.J. Christensen-Szalanski, "Improving the Practical Utility of Judgment Research," New Directions in Research on Decision Making, ed. B. Brehmer, H. Jungerman, P. Lourens and G. Sevon. North Holland: Elsevier, 1986.
vii) I have made some suggestions in an earlier paper, see G.A. Klein, "Automated Aids for the Proficient Decision Maker," IEEE Proceedings, 1980: 301-4.
2) Blasiol, Leonard A. "Intuitive Decisionmaking: Not For Everyone." Marine Corps Gazette, July 1996: 52-3.
| Coping with the Bounds Index | Foreword | Acknowledgments | Introduction | Part One Introduction | Chapter 1 | Chapter 2 | Chapter 3 | Chapter 4 | Part Two Introduction | Chapter 5 | Chapter 6 | Chapter 7 | Chapter 8 | Chapter 9 | Chapter 10 | Conclusion | Appendix 1 | Appendix 2 | Appendix 3 | Appendix 4 | Appendix 5 | Appendix 6 | Notes |